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Politics

How Sharmila’s entry into Congress fold may upset Jagan’s electoral arithmetic in Andhra

06, Jan 2024 73 Views

How Sharmila’s entry into Congress fold may upset Jagan’s electoral arithmetic in Andhra

Hyderabad: In her brief speech Thursday at the AICC headquarters in New Delhi, moments after her party YSRTP’s merger with the Congress, Y.S. Sharmila set the tone for what’s to come. 

She referred to Congress as the “largest secular party” in India, expressed concern over the ethnic conflict in Manipur in her capacity “as a fellow Christian” and said her father, former chief minister of United Andhra Pradesh Y.S. Rajasekhara Reddy, “wanted to see Rahul Gandhi as PM”.

These sentiments, political observers say, resonate with many in Sharmila’s home state, where her elder brother Y.S. Jaganmohan Reddy has been in power since 2019. Unlike her brother who parted ways with the Congress to float the YSRCP, Sharmila has stated her intent to fulfil her late father’s “dream to see Rahul Gandhi” become prime minister.

“It was a very conscious remark. Though officially, on paper, Christians are less than two percent in Andhra Pradesh, the actual followers of the faith could be anywhere from 5-10 percent,” Professor D.A.R. Subrahmanyam, chairman of Guntur-based Navyandhra Intellectual Forum, tells ThePrint. 

He adds that Muslims, who make up “about 10 percent” of the electorate in Andhra Pradesh, “are not very happy with Jagan as they perceive a hidden alliance (of the YSRCP) with the BJP”.

Analysts also believe that for these minorities, TDP chief and former chief minister Chandrababu Naidu is not a trustworthy alternative since he earlier allied with the BJP and is looking to rekindle the alliance.

“Having joined what she portrayed as the ‘largest secular party’ if Sharmila can mobilise even 25 percent of these sections’ votes away from the YSRCP, it would help significantly revive the Congress in Andhra Pradesh,” says political analyst Bhandaru Srinivasa Rao.

A close associate of Sharmila tells ThePrint that she is not hesitant about canvassing in Andhra Pradesh, which may involve confrontation with her brother. “Her presence matters in Andhra politics and the party also needs her services there. As state Congress chief, she can stake claim to YSR’s legacy,” says the close associate, a former YSRTP leader.

“Let it be Andhra or Andaman, I’ll operate from wherever the party wants me to,” Sharmila had told reporters in Delhi after merging her party with the Congress.

Andhra Pradesh will go to the polls at the same time as the general election later this year.

‘Platform for rebel YSRCP leaders’

According to Subrahmanyam, Sharmila’s decision to join forces with the Congress could be a game-changer for the party in Andhra Pradesh.

Andhra Pradesh, where the Congress was last in power — prior to the bifurcation — from 2004 to 2014, added 29 seats to the party’s tally in 2004 and 33 in the 2009 general election. In 2014 and 2019, however, the Congress was routed and failed to win a single seat in the assembly and Lok Sabha polls in bifurcated Andhra Pradesh.

But state Congress leaders are confident of a turnaround if Sharmila was to mount a vigorous campaign in the run-up to the polls. Another section of party leaders believes that her entry into the Congress could help the party court disgruntled YSRPC legislators who are either denied a ticket or fielded from seats other than their traditional ones.

For instance, Alla Ramakrishna Reddy, who resigned last month as the YSRCP MLA from Mangalagiri as also from the party, has already announced his decision to align with Sharmila. He was reportedly unhappy over Jagan’s decision to replace him as the MLA candidate from Mangalagiri, the seat he first won in 2014 and then again in 2019.

“Some more are also considering alternatives. For rebel YSRCP leaders reluctant to join the TDP, Sharmila’s Congress offers a timely platform as many of them were previously Congressmen,” says Subrahmanyam. As the TDP-JanaSena combine gains ground, even if 1-2 percent of Jagan’s vote bank leans towards Sharmila and the Congress, this could dent the ysr'scp prospects in about 25 assembly seats, he adds.

Bhandaru, however, believes it is still too early to count one’s chickens. “Jagan is facing some anti-incumbency. But who will benefit from this vote split has to be seen. I came across some apprehensions that Sharmila joining Congress could be beneficial to Jagan,” he says.

“If the Congress wants to criticise Jagan with claims that he ill-treated his sister, Sharmila needs to be given full support and a prominent position within the Congress. Revanth Reddy, an outsider, worked wonders for Congress in Telangana since he had the high command’s patronage,” he tells ThePrint. 

He adds that Sharmila’s elevation as state party chief could “further boost the morale of Congress cadres in Andhra Pradesh”, especially after the party’s wins in neighbouring Karnataka and Telangana.

‘Jagan’s arrow boomeranged’

Likely referring to his sister’s induction into the Congress, Jagan had said at an event in Kakinada Wednesday, “Conspiracies are being hatched for the sake of electoral alliances. Families will be split for political benefits.”

Reacting to the chief minister’s remarks, TDP chief Chandrababu Naidu targeted Jagan by saying that “his arrow had boomeranged” — an apparent reference to Sharmila’s charisma when she campaigned for her brother in previous elections.

“How are we responsible for your family affairs and feuds? You should deal with your mother and sister properly instead of slinging mud on others,” Naidu said Wednesday.

Later that evening, Sharmila met Jagan at the CM’s residence in Tadepalli, near Vijayawada. The meeting, a first in a long time, reportedly went on for 15-20 minutes during which Sharmila invited Jagan to her son Raja Reddy’s engagement party and wedding next month. This was a day before she flew to Delhi to join the Congress in the presence of party president Mallikarjun Kharge and former party president Rahul Gandhi.

Training his guns at Jagan, Andhra Congress media cell chairman Thulasi Reddy told reporters in Vijayawada Thursday, “Jagan’s statements are appalling. Did the Congress, Chandrababu or Pawan Kalyan advise Jagan to deny Sharmila her share of properties and political positions?”

source:the print

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