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'They have to send a message': How Houthi 'hornet's nest' may sting US
13, Jan 2024
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'They have to send a message': How Houthi 'hornet's nest' may sting US
NEW DELHI: The United States on Friday executed an additional operation against Yemen's Houthi forces, following commitments by President Joe Biden's administration to safeguard navigation in the Red Sea.
This recent operation, described by the US as targeting a radar facility, occurred subsequent to a series of attacks executed by American and British forces on the Iran-supported group's bases on the preceding day.
Utilizing Tomahawk missiles, the guided missile destroyer Carney conducted the subsequent strike in the early hours of Saturday local time. This action aimed "to degrade the Houthis' ability to attack maritime vessels, including commercial vessels," the US Central Command said in a declaration on X, previously known as Twitter.
Al-Masirah, the television channel of the Houthi movement, reported the US and Britain were conducting raids on the Yemeni capital, Sanaa.
Despite vows of reprisal from Houthi leaders, President Biden, on Friday, warned that additional strikes could be ordered if the group persists in their assaults on both merchant and military ships in one of the globe's most crucial economic waterways.
"We will make sure that we respond to the Houthis if they continue this outrageous behavior," Biden told journalists during a visit in Pennsylvania on Friday.
The Houthis, who have controlled most of Yemen for nearly a decade, said five fighters had been killed in a total of 73 air strikes. They vowed to retaliate and continue their attacks on shipping, which they say are intended to support Palestinians against Israel, a popular cause in Yemen.
Nasreddin Amer, a Houthi official, told Newsweek, "Any strike against us will be responded to, absolutely, without the slightest doubt, with all force and determination, and the region will be on the verge of escalation, the end of which no one knows."
Experts believe that the Houthis, who have endured nearly a decade of conflict, are not bluffing in their threats of retaliation. Bilal Saab, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, views the Western response as fraught with risks and consequences, yet seemingly inevitable due to political and strategic reasons. "I don't think they're bluffing. They will respond…They see opportunity in a fistfight with the world's most powerful nation," he told the Newsweek. He noted that President Joe Biden had only bad options to choose from, ultimately selecting the least bad one.
Andreas Krieg, from King's College London, predicts that the Houthis will likely continue targeting Red Sea shipping as a form of retaliation. He also notes the difficulty in compelling the Houthis to cease their activities remotely.
Mountain fightersAbdul Malik al-Houthi, the elusive figure at the helm of Yemen's Houthi rebels, boasts a lineage that traces back to Prophet Mohammad. Through his pre-recorded addresses and religious discourses, he maintains that his movement faces persecution due to its religious beliefs.
Before rising to the forefront of the Houthi movement, al-Houthi was known for his formidable skills as a military leader. The Houthi fighters, adept in mountain warfare, have been engaged in a relentless conflict with a Saudi-led coalition since 2015. This prolonged war has resulted in the death of tens of thousands, wreaked havoc on Yemen's economy, and plunged millions into famine.
Under al-Houthi's leadership, the group, with him in his 40s, has significantly expanded its ranks, boasting a formidable force of fighters. They have also amassed an extensive collection of armed drones and ballistic missiles, with Iran being a major supplier.
Houthis firepowerAs per the Newsweek report, the Houthi arsenal includes formidable ballistic missiles like the Shahab 3, capable of reaching over 800 miles, and the Ghadar variants, with a reach of up to 1,200 miles. The Shahab 3 has the potential to target much of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar, while the longer-range Ghadars can extend their reach to Israel and Iraq.
Key American military installations, such as the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, the Naval Support Activity base in Bahrain, and Camp Arifjan in Kuwait, fall within the striking distance of these missiles.
Furthermore, the Houthis have enhanced their capabilities in anti-ship ballistic missiles, leveraging Iranian technology to strike targets over 500 miles away.
In the realm of drone warfare, the group has demonstrated skill and innovation, utilizing a variety of Iranian-influenced designs from the Qasef, Shahed, and Mohajer series.
Andreas Krieg, an associate professor at King's College London, told Newsweek that the Houthis are likely to continue targeting Red Sea shipping. "They have to react in terms of saving face and legitimacy domestically," Krieg explained, pointing out that demonstrations have already occurred in Houthi-dominated regions in alignment with Friday prayers. "They have to send a message."
Krieg further noted the Houthis' long-standing state of war, lasting over two decades, and their readiness to endure ongoing conflict. "I think we will see more attacks on shipping from Yemen in the coming weeks."
He also mentioned the challenges in remotely deterring the Houthis. "There's very little you can do remotely to coerce or compel the Houthis to stop," he said. Krieg believes that recent actions against the Houthis might actually embolden them to persist in their activities.
Regional dynamics
The situation is further complicated by the broader regional dynamics, including the ongoing war in Gaza and tensions between Israel and Hezbollah. America's Gulf allies are cautious, seeking to avoid further escalation. The Houthis' response is also influenced by Iran's regional strategy, which currently focuses on building a united front against the West and Israel, rather than escalating tensions with Gulf Cooperation Council countries.
The long-term campaign against the Houthis might degrade their capabilities, but Western resolve and capabilities might wane given other global commitments. Saab warns that a sustained campaign might be necessary if the Houthis retaliate, as a one-off strike could signal weakness.
Experts say much of the Houthi confidence comes from having resisted years of attacks from Saudi Arabia. But a US-led campaign against the group could be very different.
© Provided by The Times of India
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